Prognostic value of baseline clinical and laboratory indicators for mortality in elderly HIV/AIDS patients:a 10-year-follow-up study / 中华老年医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate the correlation of the baseline clinical and laboratory test index with death,and to discuss the independent risk factors for long-term prognosis in elderly HIV/ AIDS patients who had accepted highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).Methods 1671 cases of HIV/AIDS patients were included in retrospective cohort study,divided into death group (183 cases) and non-death group (1488 cases) according to HIV/AIDS related death event,and followed up for 2 days to 120 months,an average of 427 days.Results During the period of followup,the proportion of male (12.45％) was higher than that of women (6.9％) in death group(x2 =10.42,P＜0.01).The mortality ratio of the WHO stage Ⅲ and Ⅳ was higher than that of the WHO stage Ⅰ and Ⅱ (x2 =18.67,P＜0.01).The mortality ratio was significantly higher in HIV/AIDS patients with baseline CD4+ T lymphocyte cell ＜100 cells/mm3 than ＞100 cells/mm3 (x2 =52.59,P＜0.01).The platelet (PLT),hemoglobin (HB),and blood glucose levels were lower in death group than in non-death group (P ＜ 0.05),but serum creatinine (SCR) and AST (aspartate aminotransferase) levels were higher than that in the non-death group (P＜0.05).There was no significantly differences between the death group and the non-death group in the index of white blood cell (WBC),blood urea nitrogen (BUN),total cholesterol (CH),triglyceride (TG),alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TB) levels (all P＞ 0.05).Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the WHO stage (OR=0.777,95％ CI0.612～0.987,P＜0.05) and the baseline level of CD4+ T lymphocytes cell (OR=1.345,95％ CI1.089～1.662,P＜0.01) were independent risk factors for long-term outcomes in elderly HIV/AIDS patients.Conclusions The WHO stage and baseline CD4+ T lymphocyte cell level are the independent risk factors for long-term prognosis in HIV/AIDS patients over 60 years of age.Early discovery and early beginning HAART can effectively improve the prognosis of elderly HIV/AIDS patients.