Evaluation effect of three scoring systems in the prediction of short-term outcomes following liver transplantation / 中华肝胆外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate the predictive effect of preoperative CTP score,MELD score and MELD-Na score on short-term prognosis (≤ 3 months) after liver transplantation,to analyze factors which correlated with survival,and to seek indicators that accurately predicted short-term outcomes.Methods The clinical data of 73 consecutive patients with end-stage liver diseases who underwent liver transplantation in a single center were retrospectively analyzed.The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to determine the predictive power.Correlated factors were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression.The statistical processing package used was SAS 9.1.3 software.Results 11 (15.1％) of 73 patients died within 3 months after liver transplantation.The areas under the ROC curve of the preoperative CTP score,MELD score and MELD-Na score for predicting short-term survival were 0.817,0.839 and 0.860 respectively.There was no significant difference among these 3 scoring systems.On univariate analysis,indicators significantly correlated with early mortality were preoperative serum sodium,serum urea,PT-INR,CTP score,MELD score and MELD-Na score.On logistic multiple regression,only MELD-Na score remained as a significant indicator (P =0.001,β =-2.496,OR =0.085,95％ CI0.019 ～ 0.370).Conclusions The MELD-Na scoring system showed superior predictability of early mortality in patients who underwent liver transplantation.The preoperative MELD-Na score was an independent risk factor of short-term survival.The higher the MELD-Na score,the higher was the early mortality.