Prediction of spatial distribution of Himalayan marmot based on geographic information system and ecological niche model in Qinghai Province / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To predict the spatial distribution of Himalayan marmot using geographic information system (GIS) and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP) model based on the monitoring data of Himalayan marmot in Qinghai Province.Methods Based on the data of routine monitoring and field survey by Global Position System (GPS) of Himalayan marmot,the position data was processed by spatial mapping using ArcGIS software.Ecological environment variables related to Himalayan marmot including terrain,slope,temperature,precipitation,vegetation,land use and other related variables were extracted and analyzed.The prediction model of Himalayan marmot distribution was constructed based on GARP model and ArcGIS software,and the spatial distribution mapping and analysis were carried out.Results Totally 198 points of Himalayan marmot were obtained by combining the recovery position with GPS information.The average model error of omission was 1.998 through the GARP modeling,while the optimal 100 model were highly statistically significant (all x2 ＞ 163.03,all P ＜ 0.01).The spatial distribution of predicted probability was divided into three grades including less than ＜ 40％,40％-＜ 80％ and 80％-100％ using ArcGIS,and the area with the prediction probability of 80％-100％ was the most suitable distribution area of Himalayan marmot.Conclusions The spatial distribution of plague host animal is predicted successfully using GIS and GARP ecological niche model.The result is more accurate compared to the statistic area by administrative region,which can provide important reference for plague prevention and control.