Risk factors for occurrence of post-sustained virologic response hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C ;patients / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the risk factors and predictive model for the occurrence of post-sustained virologic response (SVR)hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C (CHC)patients. Methods A total of 203 CHC patients hospitalized at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2006 to December 2014 who received antiviral therapy and achieved SVR were collected,including 11 post-SVR HCC cases.Risk factors for post-SVR HCC were estimated by Cox′s proportional hazards regression model.Cutoff value predicting risk of post-SVR HCC was determined by receiver operating characteristic curve.Results In Cox′s model,the risk of post-SVR HCC increased by 9.4-fold in patients with initial diagnosis as compensated cirrhosis compared to those with initial diagnosis as CHC.Increase in post-SVR albumin by per 1 g/L was associated with reduced risk by 20% for the occurrence of post-SVR HCC.Cut-off value of post-SVR albumin for the prediction of HCC was determined as ≤ 36.0 g/L with an area under the curve (AUC)of 0.809.A predictive model for post-SVR HCC was created based on initial diagnosis as compensated cirrhosis and post-SVR albumin ≤36.0 g/L with an AUC of 0.871 .The sensitivity,specificity and negative predictive value of the model were 0. 818,0.896 and 0.989,respectively.Conclusions Initial diagnosis as compensated cirrhosis combines with post-SVR albumin ≤36.0 g/L are risk factors for post-SVR HCC with ideal prediction value for the occurrence of post-SVR HCC in CHC patients.