Prediction of Elimination of Leprosy in Leprosy Endemic Areas of China / 中华皮肤科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To have insight into the epidemiological situation and to predict the possibilities for achieving the national goal of basic eradication or the WHO target of elimination of leprosy as a public health in the leprosy high－ endemic areas in China. Methods Based upon the data during 1983－ 1996 from the National Leprosy Recording and Reporting Surveillance System and using the appropriate mathematical models, the expected calendar year of reaching the national goal in terms of detection and prevalence rates and the WHO target of elimination under different conditions was predicted. Results Of 337 counties where the national goal of basic eradication of leprosy had not reached and 40 counties where the WHO goal of leprosy elimination had not achieved in 1996, the detection rates in calendar years followed the negatively exponential models with a significant goodness－ of－ fit in 67 and 11 counties, respectively. In the former, the national goal can be met in 6％ of counties before the year 2000 or 34.4％ before 2010 in terms of detection rate, or 31.3％ before the year 2010 in terms of prevalence rate. In the latter, the WHO target can be met in 8－ 10 counties within this century when the duration of disease was determined with the WHO definition. While the MB proportion among new cases increased by 10％ , the target would be met one year later. However, at the same MB proportion, the change of the duration of completing the fixed treatment from PB 0.5 year and MB 2 years to PB 0.75 year and MB 3 years will result in the achievement of the goal 2－ 10 years later. Conclusion The results imply that WHO goal of leprosy elimination can be reached in more than 95％ of counties by the end of this century, but the national goal of achieving basic eradication of leprosy in more than 95％ of counties by this century will not be met, indicating that leprosy control will go beyond the century in China.