Preliminary application of the grey system forecast in buru medicine / 第三军医大学学报

ABSTRACT

The GM(1,1)model of the grey system forecast was used to process and analyze the total annual admission of patients,the total number of annual patient death,and the annual mortality rate of the burn patients of the Institute in the 5-year-period from 1986 to 1990.3 corresponding forecast models were established respectively.The forecast values by these models were quite well accordant with the actual values in the period from 1986 to 1990.The forecasts of 1991 by these models are that the total annal admission of patients will approach that of 1989,which was the highest one in the last 5-year-period,and the total number of annual patient deatb and annual mortality rate will be slightly higher than that of 1990,which was the lowest one in the last 5-year-period.The grey system forecast will be beneficial for the work-planning and the personnel arrangement of our Institute.