Application of capture-recapture method in estimating the epidemic actuality of malaria in Sihong County / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the real incidence of malaria in Sihong County located in the north of Jiangsu Province and estimate the epidemic actuality in this area. Methods By using the capture-recapture method (CRM), the patients and incidence of malaria were estimated in Sihong. Results In 9 villages of 3 townships, 4896 residents among 1248 families were investigated and 56 cases of malaria found (65 cases reported before) in 2002.There were 121 cases calculated by using CRM and the theoretic cases were 1.86 times of those which had been reported. Conclusion The data of blood-examination collected from the county and towns are obviously different. It indicates that there are potential troubles in the routine blood examination to the fevered patients in this county. The incidence of a certain town is still above 0.2%. The epidemic actuality of malaria is still serious in this county.[