THE RESIDUAL CORRECTING PREDICTION OF GREY MODEL FOR MALARIA CASES IN CHINA / 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志

ABSTRACT

In this study a grey model GM(1,1) was developed on the basis of malaria cases reported for the period of 1986-1990 in China. In order to further enhance the predicting power of the model,residual correction is performed and the residual correcting GM(1,1)model was established. The result showed that the predicting performance of the latter model was much improved. The number of predicted cases for 1991(101 770) was conformed to the number of actual malaria cases reported (101 636).