An Analysis of Cost-Effective Screening Interval for HCC in Korean Hepatitis B Virus Carriers

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening tests (AFP and US) for early detection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and its optimal screening interval in Korean hepatitis B virus carriers. METHODS: Data relating to tumor incidence, efficacy of screening tests, tumour growth times and various cost for detecting HCC were obtained from reviews of Korean literature. Decision analysis technique was used to calculate the efficacy of these screening tests and screening interval. RESULTS: When the doubling time of HCC was 6 months, the most cost-effective screening interval of each AFP and US was 6 months, respectively. The optimal screening intervals of AFP and US were 3 and 5 months for each, respectively, and 7 months for both when a detection rate of 80% was expected. These results were significantly altered when the different tumour growth times reported in other literatures were applied. CONCLUSION: If the doubling time of HCC was 6 months, the optimal screening interval was 7 months on using both tests. Because the tumour doubling time alters the optimal screening interval, further evaluation on the doubling time of Korean hepatoma is needed.