Validation of the EuroSCORE and the STS-PROM in adult patients undergoing aortic valve replacement / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective The aim of the study was to analyze the predictive value of the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation score (EuroSCORE) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of mortality (STS-PROM) in -dult patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR).Methods We carried out a retrospective statistical analysis on 521 adult patients undergoing AVR between 1999 and 2008 in Changhai hospital.Patients with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting were also included.Excluded from this study were patients having surgery for congenital heart defects,aneurysm of thoracic aorta and atrial fibrillation.Operative mortality was defined as death before discharge from the hospital.The mortality risk calculation of EuroSCORE and STS-PROM for aortic valve procedures was performed by the online available EuroSCORE or STS score calculator.Based on the additive EuroSCORE risk calculation,patients were divided into low-risk,medium-risk and high-risk groups.The valuation of three different algorithms depended on the assessment of two features:calibration and discrimination.A comparison of observed and predicted mortality rates was also performed.Results A total of 521 patients were identified as having undergone aortic valve replacement.In-hospital mortality was 4％ (21 cases) overall.The expected mortality for the additive,logistic EuroSCORE and the STS-PROM was 3.36％,2.82％ and 1.25％,respectively.The observed to expected ratio was 1.2 for additive EuroSCORE,1.43 for logistic EuroSCORE and 3.23 for STS-PROM.The STS-PROM underpredicted observed mortality significantly ( P ＜ 0.01 ) and showed poor calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality in the entire cohort,medium- and high-risk subgroups.The logistic EuroSCORE underpredicted observed mortality in the mediumrisk subgroup ( P ＜ 0.05 ).EuroSCORE underpredicted in-hospital mortality in the high-risk subgroup with the observed-expected mortality rate of 1.84 for additive EuroSCORE and 1.46 for logistic EuroSCORE.The EuroSCORE in three subgroups showed poor discrimination in predicting mortality as well as the STS-PROM did in the medium- and high-risk subgroups ( ROC ＜ 0.7).Conclusion Both the EuroSCORE and the STS-PROM give an imprecise prediction for individual operative risk in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement in our study.These algorithms seem unsuitable to identify a high-risk patient population undergoing isolated AVR.It is necessary to construct a risk stratification model for valve surgery according to the profiles of Chinese patients.