Correlation between APACHEⅡ scores and delirium probability of senile severe pneumonia patients undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation / 中华危重病急救医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the correlation between acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) scores and delirium probability of senile severe pneumonia patients undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation (MV).Methods A retrospective study was conducted. Eighty-nine senile severe pneumonia patients undergoing invasive MV admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of Hunan Provincial People's Hospital from January 2015 to March 2017 were enrolled. APACHE Ⅱ scores were collected 24 hours before invasive MV. Consciousness assessment method-ICU (CAM-ICU) was used to diagnose delirium, and the patients were divided into delirium group and non-delirium group. The first delirium occurrence time, duration of MV and the length of ICU stay were recorded. The patients were divided into ≤15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 groups according to APACHEⅡ score, and the incidence of delirium in all groups were observed. The linear regression and Pearson correlation were used to analyze the correlation between APACHE Ⅱ scores and delirium probability. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to analyze the predictive effect of APACHEⅡ score on delirium.Results Eighty-nine patients were enrolled in the final analysis, of which 35 had delirium, and 54 had no delirium, with delirium incidence of 39.33%, and the first delirium occurrence time of (1.85±1.30) days. The duration of MV and the length of ICU stay of delirium group were significantly higher than those of non-delirium group [duration of MV (days) 9.43±4.77 vs. 6.08±3.30, length of ICU stay (days) 14.60±6.59 vs. 9.69±4.61, bothP < 0.01]. The APACHE Ⅱ score in delirium group was significantly higher than that in non-delirium group (29.89±5.45 vs. 21.48±4.76,P < 0.01). With the increase in APACHE Ⅱ scores, the delirium incidence was gradually increased. Correlation analysis showed that there was a negative correlation between APACHE Ⅱ scores and first delirium occurrence time (r = -0.411,P = 0.014), and a significant linear positive correlation between APACHE Ⅱ scores and delirium incidence in all patients was found (r = 0.982, P = 0.000), which indicated the higher APACHE Ⅱ scores, the higher delirium incidences and the earlier first delirium occurrence time was. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under ROC curve (AUC) of APACHE Ⅱ scores on predicting delirium occurrence was 0.877, when the cut-off value of APACHE Ⅱ score was over 27, the sensitivity was 92.59%, the specificity was 71.43%, the positive predictive value was 83.33%, and the negative predictive value was 86.21%.Conclusions With the increase in APACHE Ⅱ score, the incidence of delirium was increased gradually in senile severe pneumonia patients receiving invasive MV. APACHE Ⅱ score played an important clinical value in evaluating the delirium probability of these patients