Trend Prediction of Antibiotics Utilization Rate in Outpatients by Time Series Model / 中国药房
China Pharmacy
;
(12): 3197-3200, 2017.
Artigo
em Chinês
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-612256
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To strengthen application management of antibiotics in outpatients,promote rational use of antibiot-ics,and to provide reference for scientific management and decision-making in the hospital.METHODS:
The proportion of outpa-tients receiving antibiotics in total outpatients was analyzed statistically during Jan. 2008-Jun. 2016. Utilization rate data of antibiot-ics in outpatients during 2008-2015 were used to establish Autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA),and the data of the first half of 2016 was used to validate established model;the utilization rate trend of antibiotics in outpatients in the second half of 2016 was predicted. SPSS 20.0 statistical software was adopted for statistical analysis.RESULTS:
Established ARIMA(2,1, 0)(2,1,0)12 model has higher fitting degree. There was a small difference between measured value and fitted value of utilization rate of antibiotics in outpatients in 2016. Average absolute error was 0.72%,and average relative error was 4.20%,within 95%confidence interval of fitted value. Dynamic trend of model predicted value was basically consistent with measured value. CONCLU-SIONSARIMA model simulates utilization rate trend of antibiotics in outpatients well,can be used for short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of utilization rate trend of antibiotics. However,for long-term prediction,various factors should be considered.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo prognóstico
Idioma:
Chinês
Revista:
China Pharmacy
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
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