The Derivation and Validation of a Scoring System for Clinical Prognosis in Patients Releiving Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy / 中国循环杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective: To create and validate a scoring system for predicting clinical prognosis in patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Methods: A cohort of 367 consecutive patients received CRT in our hospital from 2010-01 to 2015-12 were enrolled. The endpoint follow-up events were all-cause death including heart transplantation and heart failure re-admission. The patients were randomly categorized into 2 groups: Modeling group, to develop HEAL scoring system,n=300 and Veriifcation group, to validate HEAL model,n=67. HEAL system was established by Cox proportional hazards regression model, discrimination between HEAL and EARRN scoring systems was evaluated by AUC of ROC, HEAL calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and clinical endpoint evaluation by 2 scoring systems were compared by Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Modeling group analysis indicated that hs-CRP (HR=1.137, 95% CI 1.072-1.205,P10. AUC for risk classification in Modeling group and Verification group were 0.719(95% CI 0.629-0.809) and 0.708 (95% CI 0.539-0.878), HEAL can well distinguish clinical prognosis in patients at different risk levels (log-rank test showed in Modeling groupP<0.001 and in Veriifcation groupP=0.002); Hosmer-Lemeshow test presented good calibration,P=0.952. All 367 patients were respectively evaluated by HEAL and EARRN scoring systems, HEAL had the better discrimination than EARRN as AUC 0.763 (95% CI 0.692-0.833) vs AUC 0.602 (95% CI 0.517-0.687). Conclusion: HEAL scoring system can effectively predict adverse prognosis in CRT patients, it had the better discrimination than EARRN system and was valuable to distinguish high risk patients in clinical practice.