Time characteristics of imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the time distribution characteristics and the epidemic trends of imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province. Methods The malaria case records and epidemiological history data of Yunnan Province were collected, and the local infection cases were excluded. The data were statistical analyzed. Results The imported malaria cases had a sig-nificantly seasonal periodicity(Q=26.574,P0.05). By using the model to predict the cases in January,February and March of 2016,the num-ber(95％CI)were 29(7-50),22(0-44)and 31(8-54),and the actual number of imported malaria cases were 29,24 and 38 cases respectively and all cases were included in the 95％CI. Conclusion The imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province had a significantly seasonal periodicity and epidemic trends,and the established model has good prediction on the recent cases.