Risk and impact assessment of climate change on human health by different climatic zones of Mongolia / Монголын Анагаах Ухаан

ABSTRACT

Introduction Worldwide, numerous studies have been conducted and many papers have been published about the impact of climate change on human health, and the correlations between air temperature, precipitation, droughts, and floods, and their adverse health effects such as respiratory and water-borne diseases. Scientific evidence on this issue continues to mount, showing that the effects of climate change are mostly adverse to human health. In Mongolia however, scientific research on the effects of climate change on health is at its starting point and only a few studies have been conducted. Goal Determine and assess risk factors and effects of climate change on human health Materials and Methods The study area included Zavkhan, Selenge, Dornod, Umnugovi aimags (provinces) and Ulaanbaatar city, each representing one of the five climatic zones of Mongolia. Daily meteorological variables for temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, highest wind speed, precipitation and relative humidity of the selected study sites from 2009 to 2011 were acquired from the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental Monitoring. Statistical analysis of the collected data was done using the SPSS18 program and 95%CI was used to determine inter-zonal differences of weather and climatic variables. Results In order to determine climate risk factors, the analysis used the number of days when temperature exceeded mean annual air temperature by +25°С/-25°С, and their sequences, the number of days when the absolute temperature exceeded +30°С in summer months, and -30°С in winter months, and their sequences, the number of days when daily fluctuations in atmospheric pressure exceeded 30 hPa and the number of days when relative humidity was lower than 30 percent or greater than 80 percent, and their percentage of the total number of days.