Descriptive and predictive time series analysis of premature mortality from noncommunicable disease among Filipinos
Acta Medica Philippina
;
: 144-151, 2016.
Artigo
em Inglês
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-632746
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
The problem of increasing mortality from noncommunicable disease (NCD) in the Philippines warrants an in-depth assessment of premature death rate in the country. This research aims to explore the temporal characteristics of mortality younger than 70 years old from the leading NCD among Filipinos from 2006 to 2012 and forecast premature mortality rates in 2013 to 2016.METHODS:
Time series modeling and forecasting using the Box-Jenkins method was performed on secondary ecologic data extracted from the national mortality database maintained by the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office.RESULTS:
Premature death rate from cardiovascular diseases has been increasing steadily. Diabetes mellitus, which shows initially rising mortality among the 30-69-year-old age group, has been reversed in 2009. Trends of premature mortality from cancers and chronic lung diseases did not appear to change over time. NCD mortality rates in the 30-69-year-old age group are generally expected to plateau from 2013 onwards.CONCLUSION:
This novel application of time series analysis on premature NCD mortality data drives both further scientific studies and formal programmatic evaluation by providing a better evidence-based picture of NCD burden in the country.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Assunto principal:
Filipinas
/
População
/
Doenças Cardiovasculares
/
Mortalidade
/
Diabetes Mellitus
/
Mortalidade Prematura
/
Estilo de Vida
/
Pneumopatias
/
Neoplasias
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo prognóstico
Limite:
Adulto
/
Idoso
/
Feminino
/
Humanos
/
Masculino
País/Região como assunto:
Ásia
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Acta Medica Philippina
Ano de publicação:
2016
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
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