The prediction of early mortality in off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery: SinoSCORE versus EuroSCORE / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To compare the validation of the Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation ( SinoSCORE ) with the Europe an system for cardiac operative risk evaluation ( EuroSCORE ) in patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgery in China. Methods Data of patients who underwent OPCAB between 2004 and 2005 in the Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study were collected. The end point of the study was postoperative in-hospital death. Predicted mortality were calculated using the SinoSCORE and the logistic EuroSCORE, and compared with observed mortality. Calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Discrimination was tested by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve. Results 73 of 4920 patients died in hospital and the observed mortality was 1.48%. The predicted mortality calculated by the SinoSCORE and the EuroSCORE was 2.73% and 4. 13% respectively. For SinoSCORE the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was non-significant ( P = 0. 636 ) and the area under ROC curve was 0. 794. For the EuroSCORE the HL test was significant( P = 0.01 ) and the area under ROC curve was 0. 756. Both the SinoSCORE and the logistic EuroSCORE provides good discrimination, but the SinoSCORE showed better calibration than EuroSCORE, that is, both the two models were significantly correlated to postoperative death, but SinoSCORE is more accurate than EuroSCORE at predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality. Conclusion SinoSCORE seems to be more suitable than EuroSCORE in predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality for OPCAB patients in China.