SinoSCORE can predict the early mortality of patients with valve surgery / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To validate the predictive value of SinoSCORE in patients undergoing valve surgery. Methods The clinical data of 13 ±353 patients undergone valve surgery from 43 Chinese cardiac centers between January 2007 and December 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. The score values of all patients were calculated according to the SinoSCORE model.The calibration was tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. Area under the receiver operator curves ( ROC )was calculated to evaluate the model' s discriminatory ability. Results The mean age of the total patients was (48.0 ± 11.7 )years. Most of the patients were women (58% versus 42% ). The data contained 2505 cases of aortic valve surgery, 6996 cases of mitral valve surgery and 4002 cases of double valve surgery ( concomitant aortic and mitral valve surgery). The area under the ROC (0.74,95% confidence interval 0.70 -0.78 ) revealed that the SinoSCORE possessed strong discriminatory power between high- and low risk patients. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (P = 0.47 ) validated the good predictive ability of SinoSCORE. Conclusion SinoSCORE can accurately predict the early mortality in patients with valve surgery. It is a good and well-validated risk stratification model applicable to patients with valve surgery.