Establishment of a new scoring model for IVIG non-response of Kawasaki disease / 国际儿科学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the possible risk factors of IVIG non-response of Kawasaki disease (KD),Shanghai Children's Hospital and Shanghai Junze Software develop an research platform,which is based on E-Science model.Through the mathematical model by integrating the risk factors to explore the method of effective prediction for IVIG non-response,and to provide the clinical basis for timely and effective treatment and prognosis of the disease.Methods The data of KD children who were hospitalized in Shanghai Children's Hospital from January 2013 to November 2016 were included.The indexes included gender,age,time of IVIG treatment,and laboratory examinations.The multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of IVIG non-response.The indexes in the model were deduced according to the independent variables of the logistic regression equation.The ROC curve and the area under the curve were calculated for the new prediction model.The sensitivity and specificity of the new prediction model were calculated according to the cutoff value.Finally,the new model was compared with the Kobayashi and Egami scoring model.Results The levels of CRP,NLR,LDH,ALB and FDP in children with KD were influencing factors for IVIG nonresponse (P ＜ 0.05).According to the logistic regression equation,the sensitivity and specificity of the model used to predict IVIG non-response were 69.7％ and 80.4％,respectively,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.825 (95％ CI0.769-0.882).Kobayashi and Egami scoring models were tested,the sensitivity and specificity of the new scoring system were better than previous ones.Condusion The scoring model established in this study has a good effect in predicting IVIG non-response in KD patients and could be used in clinical practice,and it is worthy to be validated and adjusted by large-scale data.