The predictive value of combined application of the different obesity measures on incident gallstone diseases:a multicenter retrospective study (A report of 88 947 cases) / 中华消化外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the predictive value of combined application of the different obesity measures on incident gallstone disease (GD) and find the optimal combination.Methods The retrospective cohort study was conducted.The data of 88 947 participants who participated in health examination at the Kailuan General Hospital,Kailuan Linxi Hospital,Kailuan Zhaogezhuang Hospital,Kailuan Tangjiazhuang Hospital,Kailuan Fan'gezhuang Hospital,Kailuan Jinggezhuang Hospital,Kailuan Lyujiatuo Hospital,Kailuan Linnancang Hospital,Kailuan Qianjiaying Hospital,Kailuan Majiagou Hospital and Kailuan Branch Hospital from July 2006 to December 2015 were collected.All participants received the same-order health examinations by the fixed team of doctors in 2006,2008,2010,2012 and 2014 at the same place.Epidemiological investigation,anthropometric parameters and biochemical indicators were collected.Observation indicators(1) comparisons of general data between 2 genders;(2) incidence of GD;(3) risk factors analysis of the different obesity measures affecting incident GD;(4) comparisons of the fitting degree and predictive value of combined application of the different obesity measures on incident GD model.Measurement data with normal distribution were represented as (x)±s,and comparisons between groups were analyzed using the t test.Measurement data with skewed distribution were described as M (P25,P75),and comparisons between groups were analyzed using the rank sum test.Comparisons of count data were analyzed using the chi-square test.The incidences of GD between 2 genders were calculated by person-year of follow-up.The hazard ratio (HR) and 95％ confidence interval (CI) of the different obesity measures on incident GD were estimated by the COX proportional hazard model.The fitting degree of different combination of obesity measures on incident GD model was calculated by the likelihood ratio test and akaike information criterion (AIC).Results (1) Comparisons of general data between 2 gendersof 88 947 participants,age,body mass index (BMI),waist circumference (WC),systolic pressure,diastolic pressure,total cholesterol (TC),triglyceride (TG),fasting plasma glucose (FPG),cases with diabetes,hypertension,smoking,drinking and physical exercise were respectively (51± 12) years old,(25±3) kg/m2,(88± 10) cm,(132±20) mmHg (1mmHg=0.133 kPa),(84± 12) mmHg,(4.95± 1.16) mmol/L,1.18 mmol/L (0.81 mmol/L,1.74 mmol/L),(5.5±1.6)mmol/L,6 223,31 816,26 993,15 779,11 063 in male participants and (49± 11)yearsold,(25±4)kg/m2,(83±11)cm,(124±21)mmHg,(7911)mmHg,(4.98±1.08)mmol/L,1.30 mmol/L (0.92 mmol/L,2.00 mmol/L),(5.3±1.6)mmol/L,1 409,5 866,248,87,2 450 in female participants,with statistically significant differences [t=587.20,894.27,1 064.97,813.49,986.22,630.97,H(x2)=642.39,t=452.87,x2=35.10,1 205.40,9 619.42,4 901.75,84.82,P＜0.05].(2) Incidence of GD88 947 participants were followed up for 713 345 person-year,4 291 participants had incident GD,with a total person-year incidence of 6.02 thousand person / year.The total follow-up time,cases with incident GD and person-year incidence were respectively 562 821 person-year,3 268,5.81 thousand person / year in male participants and 150 524 person-year,1 023,6.80 thousand person / year in female participants.(3) Risk factors analysis of the different obesity measures affecting incident GDthe results of COX proportional hazard modelin male participants,adjusted for age,TC,TG,diabetes,hypertension,smoking,drinking and physical exercise,BMI was associated with increased risk of incident GD (HR=1.35,1.63,95％CI1.24-1.46,1.48-1.80,P＜0.05);WC was associated with increased risk of incident GD (HR=1.27,1.53,95％CI1.15-1.40,1.39-1.67,P＜0.05);waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) was associated with increased risk of incident GD (HR=1.20,1.44,95％CI1.09-1.32,1.31-1.58,P＜0.05).In female participants,BMI was associated with increased risk of incident GD (HR=1.35,1.77,95％CI1.16-1.56,1.49-2.10,P＜0.05);WC was associated with increased risk of incident GD (HR=1.38,1.72,95％CI1.15-1.66,1.44-2.07,P＜0.05);WHtR was associated with increased risk of incident GD (HR=1.34,1.71,95％CI1.12-1.61,1.43-2.04,P＜0.05).(4) Comparisons of the fitting degree and predictive value of combined application of the different obesity measures on incident gallstone diseases modelmulti-factor model of male participants was constructed after adding risk factors of age,TC,TG,diabetes,hypertension,smoking,drinking and physical exercise,and-2log L and AIC were 71 257 and 71 275.Then BMI,WC,WHtR,BMI+WC,BMI+WHtR,WC+WHtR and BMI+WC+ WHtR were respectively added into the multi-factor model,and-2log L and AIC were respectively 71 156 and 71 178,71 170 and 71 192,71 197 and 71 219,71 134 and 71 160,71 132 and 71 162,71 170 and 71 196,71 132 and 71 162.The minimal mode of AIC was multi-factor model+BMI+WC,with a difference of 123 compared with multi-factor model of-2log L,showing a statistically significant difference (x2 =123.00,P＜ 0.05).The multi-factor model of female participants was constructed after adding risk factors of age,TC,TG,diabetes,hypertension,smoking,drinking and physical exercise,and-2log L and AIC were 19 612 and 19 630.Then BMI,WC,WHtR,BMI+WC,BMI+WHtR,WC+WHtR and BMI+WC+WHtR were respectively added into the multi-factor model,and-2log L and AIC were respectively 19 568 and 19 590,19 575 and 19 597,19 574 and 19 596,19 558 and 19 584,19 557 and 19 583,19 571 and 19 597,19 556 and 19 586.The minimal mode of AIC was multi-factor model+BMI+WHtR,with a difference of 55 compared with multi-factor model of-2log L,showing a statistically significant difference (x2 =55.00,P＜0.05).Conclusions The increased BMI,WC and WHtR are independent risk factors for incident GD,no matter the gender.In males,the combination of BMI and WC can improved the predictive value of the incident GD,while in females,BMI and WHtR are the best combination for predicting incident GD.