Mathematical Modeling for Scrub Typhus and Its Implications for Disease Control
Journal of Korean Medical Science
;
: e98-2018.
Artigo
em Inglês
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-713718
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The incidence rate of scrub typhus has been increasing in the Republic of Korea. Previous studies have suggested that this trend may have resulted from the effects of climate change on the transmission dynamics among vectors and hosts, but a clear explanation of the process is still lacking. In this study, we applied mathematical models to explore the potential factors that influence the epidemiology of tsutsugamushi disease.METHODS:
We developed mathematical models of ordinary differential equations including human, rodent and mite groups. Two models, including simple and complex models, were developed, and all parameters employed in the models were adopted from previous articles that represent epidemiological situations in the Republic of Korea.RESULTS:
The simulation results showed that the force of infection at the equilibrium state under the simple model was 0.236 (per 100,000 person-months), and that in the complex model was 26.796 (per 100,000 person-months). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential parameters were rodent and mite populations and contact rate between them for the simple model, and trans-ovarian transmission for the complex model. In both models, contact rate between humans and mites is more influential than morality rate of rodent and mite group.CONCLUSION:
The results indicate that the effect of controlling either rodents or mites could be limited, and reducing the contact rate between humans and mites is more practical and effective strategy. However, the current level of control would be insufficient relative to the growing mite population.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Assunto principal:
Roedores
/
Mudança Climática
/
Tifo por Ácaros
/
Epidemiologia
/
Incidência
/
República da Coreia
/
Ácaros
/
Modelos Teóricos
/
Princípios Morais
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo de incidência
/
Estudo prognóstico
Limite:
Humanos
País/Região como assunto:
Ásia
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Journal of Korean Medical Science
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
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