A Time Series Analysis of the Death Rates and Rectangularization of the Survival Curve, 1970-2010 / 한국역학회지

ABSTRACT

As the population of senior people has been increased rapidly during the past 30 years in Koera, the health policy and related research in this field are strongly demanded to manage various problems which can be derived from the gerontic phenomenon. We estimated the death rates up to 2010 using the annual mortality data published by the National Statistical Office from 1970 to 1995 by time series analysis and calculated the survival curves, life expectancy by life table method with modified Graville's formular and proposed several measures which can be used in describing the theory of retangularization of survival curves and compression of mortality hypothesis. According to the results, the relative and absolute rectangularization and the convergency of survival curves were observed, and all the Keyfitz's H, NH, SD, and CV decreased while the life expectancy increased in the period of 1970 to 2010. So we conclude that the hypothesis of mortality compression suggested by Fries explains the changing pattern of aged population in Korea very well.