Long-term prediction of gastric cancer mortality in Korea / 한국역학회지

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: This study was carried out to predict the mortality rate for gastric cancer up to 2020 in Korea with forecasting model. METHODS: The trends of the age-adjusted mortality rate was calculated from 1983 to 2003 using the mortality data of the past 20 years in Korea, and projected up to the year of 2020 with log-linear models for each gender. The number of deaths from gastric cancer was calculated from the predicted mortality rate. RESULTS: Age-adjusted mortality rates for gastric cancer per 100,000 persons were 32.13 in 1983, 23.95 in 1990, and 15.99 in 2003 for women, and 70.37, 58.74, 41.04 for men, respectively. The expected age-adjusted mortality rates for gastric cancer were 16.50 in 2005, 14.27 in 2010, and 10.66 in 2020 for women, and 39.14, 33.83, 25.28 for men, respectively. In contrast to this decreasing trend, it is predicted that mortality rates for those aged 75 or over would increase steadily. The predicted number of deaths from gastric cancer was 6,519 for women and 13,743 for men in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that gastric cancer mortality rate would decrease continuously except for some aged groups. The declining trends in gastric cancer mortality are regarded as a result of lifestyle changes, improvements in screening methods and treatments. Strategies for aged groups should be developed in order to control increasing mortality rates.