Predictive value of immature granulocytes for persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome in patients with acute pancreatitis: analysis of 1 973 cases / 中华危重病急救医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the clinical value of immature granulocytes in peripheral blood for prediction of persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods 1 973 patients with AP in Hunan People's Hospital from 2012 to 2017 were retrospectively enrolled and divided by SIRS duration into the persistent SIRS group, temporary SIRS group and non-SIRS group. The independent risk factor for persistent SIRS in AP patients was evaluated by Logistic regression analysis, and predictive value of immature granulocytes for persistent SIRS in AP patients was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results These 1 973 AP patients (1 165 males, 59.0%) with an average age of 49 (40, 60) years old, including 288 persistent SIRS, 189 temporary SIRS and 1 496 non-SIRS cases. There was no significant difference in gender, age and etiology among three groups. Compared with non-SIRS group, more severe symptoms were observed in the temporary and persistent SIRS groups. Moreover, The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ), CT severity index (CTSI), multiple organ failure (MOF) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) incidence, mortality and C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC), procalcitonin (PCT) and immature granulocytes in persistent SIRS group were further higher than those in the temporary SIRS group [APACHEⅡ 9 (6, 12) vs. 5 (3, 7), CTSI 6 (4, 6) vs. 4 (3, 6), MOF incidence 92.0% vs. 32.8%, ARDS incidence 39.9% vs. 10.1%, morbidity 11.1% vs. 4.2%, CRP (mg/L) 25.00 (0.80, 212.25) vs. 0.80 (0.80, 123.50), WBC (×109/L) 15.17±6.78 vs. 14.84±5.86, PCT (μg/L) 0.23 (0.10, 1.76) vs. 0.10 (0.10, 0.31), immature granulocytes 1.95 (0.90, 4.95) % vs. 0.80 (0.40, 2.10) %, all P < 0.05]. Logistic regression analysis showed that besides pancreatic necrosis, WBC and CRP, immature granulocyte was an independent risk factor for persistent SIRS associated with AP [odds ratio (OR) = 1.844, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.372-2.220]. ROC curve showed that immature granulocytes had better predictive value for persistent SIRS, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.806, which was significantly higher than the APACHEⅡ (AUC = 0.783), CTSI (AUC = 0.752), PCT (AUC = 0.676), CRP (AUC = 0.677), WBC (AUC = 0.644). The cut-off value of immature granulocyte was 0.65%, the sensitivity was 84.0%, the specificity was 66.3%, the positive predictive value was 62.4%, and the negative predictive value was 76.3%. Conclusion Immature granulocyte in peripheral blood is a potential indicator for persistent SIRS in AP patients.