A prospective cohort study on triglycerides levels and risk of acute pancreatitis / 中华消化杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the effects of fasting serum triglycerides (TG) levels at different baseline on the risk of new-onset acute pancreatitis (AP) in in-service and retired employees of Kailuan Group.Methods A total of 125 178 in-service and retired employees of Kailuan Group who received health check-ups from 2006 to 2009 and had no AP history but had complete TG data were prospectively enrolled.According to quantile level,the baseline serum fasting TG level of study subjects were divided into ＜1.01 mmol/L group (n=42 128),1.01 to 1.64 mmol/L group (n=41 711) and ＞ 1.64 mmol/L group (n=41 339).The incidence of new-onset AP of these three groups was analyzed.The survival curve was plotted by Kaplan-Meier method.The cumulative incidence rate was calculated and tested by log-rank method.And multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed to calculate hazard ratios (HR) of baseline fasting serum TG level for AP.Results After followed up for (7.36±1.23) years,a total of 193 cases of AP occurred.The incidences of AP in ＜1.01 mmol/L group,1.01 to 1.64 mmol/L group and ＞ 1.64 mmol/L group were 1.43 events/10 000 person-years,2.37 events/10 000 person-years and 2.49 events/10 000 person-years,respectively.The cumulative incidence rates of AP in ＜1.01 mmol/L group,1.01 to 1.64 mmol/L group and ＞1.64 mmol/L group were 0.10％ (44/42 128),0.18％ (73/41 711) and 0.18％ (76/41 339),respectively,and the difference was statistically significant (x2 =9.998,P=0.007).The results of multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis indicated that the risk of AP increased in 1.01 to 1.64 mmol/L group and ＞ 1.64 mmol/L group compared with that of ＜1.01 mmol/L group,HR and 95％ confidence interval (CI) were 1.56 (1.07 to 2.29) and 1.57 (1.06 to 2.32),respectively.After excluded onset AP within one year,with a control group of ＜1.01 mmol/L group,the results of multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis indicated that the HR and 95％CI for AP of 1.01 to 1.64 mmol/L group and ＞ 1.64 mmol/L group were 1.70 (1.11 to 2.58) and 1.69 (1.10 to 2.60),respectively.Conclusion Baseline fasting serum TG levels over 1.01 mmol/L may increase the risk of AP.