Relationship between particulate matters and cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo: a time-series study / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the short-term effect of particulate matters with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 10 μg (PM10) and aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 2.5 μg (PM2.5) on cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo city.Methods Daily cardiocerebrovascular mortality data from 2011 to 2014 in Ningbo city were collected and the time series study using a semi-parametric generalized additive model were used to evaluate the relationship between the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and particulate matters after adjustment for the long-term trend of death,weather conditions,"days of the week" and other confounding factors.Results In single-pollutant model,the short-term effects of particulate matter on cardio-cerebrovascular mortality was strongest in lagged 2 days in Ningbo city,and an increase of 10 μg/m3 in moving average concentrations (lagged 2-3 days and lagged 2-4 days) of PM2.5 and PM10 could increase the cardio-cerebrovascular mortality by 0.55％ (0.23％-0.87％) and 0.53％ (0.28％-0.78％),respectively.In multi-pollutant models,PM10 did remain robust after being adjusted for PM2.5 with 0.58％ (0.09％-1.07％) increase in cardio-cerebrovascular mortality.The effect of PM2.5 had no statistical significantce after being adjusted for other co-pollutants.Conclusion These findings suggested that the concentrations of ambient particulate matters were associated with an increased risk of daily cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo city.