Application of R-based multiple seasonal ARIMA model, in predicting the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To apply the 'auto-regressive integrated moving average product seasonal model' in predicting the number of hand,foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province.Methods In Shaanxi province,the trend of hand,foot and mouth disease was analyzed and tested,under the use of R software,between January 2009 and June 2015.Multiple seasonal ARIMA model was then fitted under time series to predict the number of hand,foot and mouth disease in 2016 and 2017.Results Seasonal effect was seen in hand,foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province.A multiple seasonal ARIMA (2,1,0) × (1,1,0)12 was established,with the equation as (1-B)(1-B12)(1-1.000B)Ln(Xt) =(1-0.532B-0.363B2) (1-0.644B12-0.454B212)εt.The mean of absolute error and the relative error were 531.535 and 0.114,respectively when compared to the simulated number of patients from Jun to Dec in 2015.Results under the prediction of multiple seasonal ARIMA model showed that the numbers of patients in both 2016 and 2017 were similar to that of 2015 in Shaanxi province.Conclusion Multiple seasonal ARIMA (2,1,0) × (1,1,0)12 model could be used to successfully predict the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province.