Trend of premature mortality from chronic and non-communicable diseases in Tianjin,1999-2015 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the trends and distribution of premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,cancer,chronic respiratory disease and diabetes in different sex and residential areas in Tianjin so as to provide basis for setting up prevention and control programs on premature mortality.Methods Population data on premature mortality in 1999-2015 were from the'Tianjin population based mortality surveillance system'maintained by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).Data related to permanent residents was from the Tianjin Municipal Public Security Bureau.Standardized premature mortality rates were calculated and adjusted for age and gender according to the ‘2000 world standard population'.Premature mortality probabilities were analyzed according to the methods recommended by WHO.Joinpoint regression and Cochran-Armitage trend methods were used to determine the significance of differences on the trends of mortality.Results From 1999 to 2015,the prematmre mortality appeared consistent (P＜0.001) declining in the above-said four diseases with the APC of probabilities as-2.92％,-1.13％,-9.51％ and-3.39％,respectively.The probabilities of premature mortality were all declining consistently in both men and women and in both urban and rural areas in Tianjin.From 1999 to 2015,the probabilities of the four main NCDs were between 19.67％ and 12.85％ (APC=-2.49％,P＜0.001),higher in women (from 17.02％ to 9.17％,APC=-3.84％,P＜0.001) than that in men (from 22.27％ to 16.47％,APC=-1.59％,P＜0.001),in urban (from 21.04％ to 12.34％,APC=-3.26％,P＜0.001) than that in rural areas (from 17.80％ to 13.54％,APC=-1.54％,P＜0.001).Conclusion Our findings suggested that premature mortality in Tianjin was decreasing during 1999-2015 but attention should still be called for on males and people living in the rural areas to further reducing the premature mortality.