Analysis on epidemiology and spatial-temporal clustering of human brucellosis in Fujian province, 2011-2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Fujian province during 2011-2016,and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods The surveillance data of human brucellosis in Fujian during 2011-2016 was analyzed with software R 3.3.1,ArcGIS 10.3.1,GeoDa 1.8.8 and SaTScan 9.4.3.Results During 2011-2016,a total of 319 human brucellosis cases were reported,the incidence increased year by year (F=11.838,P=0.026) with the annual incidence of 0.14/100 000.The male to female rate ratio of the incidence was 2.50 ∶ 1.Farmers and herdsmen accounted for 57.37％.The incidence was 0.40/100 000 in Zhangzhou and 0.32/100 000 in Nanping,which were higher than other areas.The number of affected counties (district) increased from 12 in 2011 to 28 in 2016,showing a significant increase (F=13.447,P=0.021).The Moran' s I of brucellosis in Fujian between January 2011 and December 2016 was 0.045,indicating the presence of a high value or low value clustering areas.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that,high-high clustering area (hot spots) were distributed in Zhangpu,Longhai,Longwen,etc,while high-low clustering areas were distributed in Nan' an and Jiaocheng,etc.Temporal scanning showed that there were three clustering areas in areas with high incidence,the most possible clustering,occurring during January 1,2013-December 31,2015,covered 6 counties,including Yunxiao,Pinghe,Longhai,etc,and Zhangpu was the center,(RR =7.96,LLR=92.62,P＜0.001).Conclusions The epidemic of human brucellosis in Fujian is becoming serious,and has spread to general population and non-epidemic areas.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of human brucellosis in areas at high risk.