A research on spatial correlation and spatial cluster pattern of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jingzhou City, Hubei Province from 2013 to 2017 / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the spatial correlation and spatial cluster pattern of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Jingzhou City,Hubei Province from 2013 to 2017.Methods The HFRS surveillance data during 2013-2017 were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System.Software ArcGIS 10.3 was used to analyze the spatial distribution,and global autocorrelation analysis (Moran'sI) and hot spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi) were used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation.Spatial cluster pattern was explored by trend surface analysis and directional distribution.Results In 2013-2017,the global Moran's I was 0.117 6 (P ＞ 0.05),0.349 8 (P ＜ 0.05),0.102 1 (P ＞ 0.05),0.276 3 (P ＜ 0.05),and 0.394 8 (P ＜ 0.05),respectively.The Getis-Ord Gi analysis showed that there were 7,8,8,8,15 hot areas with high incidence of HFRS during this period,respectively,which were part of townships in Jiangling County,Shashi District,Jianli County,and Honghu City.The cold spot area with low incidence of HFRS was only detected in 2015,and it was part of the township in Shashi District and Jingzhou District.The trend surface analysis showed that the inverted-U type curve could reflect the HFRS distribution from northern to southern,and it was also from eastern to western.The directional distribution showed that the HFRS cases were distributed in the north-central part of Jingzhou in 2013-2017,and they were inconsistent with the distribution of the Yangtze River system.Conclusions The incidence of HFRS has an obvious spatial clustering characteristic,and the areas at high risk are mainly in the north-central part of Jingzhou City.The spatial cluster pattern of HFRS has nothing to do with the Yangtze River system.