Predictive value of serum HIF-1α and IL-6 on short-time prognosis of patients with severe traumatic brain injury / 中国神经精神疾病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the predictive value of serum hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) at admission on short-time 6-month prognosis of patients with severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI). Methods Seventy-two sTBI patients with Glasgow coma score (GCS) 3-8 points in our hospital were selected from September 2016 to January 2018 and divided into the group with good prognosis and group with poor prognosis according to Glasgow outcome score (GOS) after injury 6 months. Serum HIF-1α and IL-6 at admission were detected by using ELISA. The levels of plasma biochemistry indexes, acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) scores and GCS scores were evaluated. Univariable and Multivariable COX proportional hazards models were performed to analyze the risk factors for short-time prognosis of patients with sTBI. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was built to analyze the predictive value of APACHEⅡ scores, HIF-1α and IL-6 on short-time prognosis of patients with sTBI. Results After 6-month followed up, there were 33 patients with good prognosis and 39 patients with poor prognosis. There was statistical difference of the baseline values of ages, serum HIF-1α and IL-6 at admission, APACHEⅡscores and GCS scores, the interval from injury to admission, the size of traumatic brain injury between two groups (t=2.312,14.132,16.628,3.172,3.644,3.073,4.284, P＜0.05). The serum HIF-1α [HR (95%CI)=2.645 (1.710-4.679), P＜0.05] and IL-6 [HR(95%CI)=1.821(1.674-2.957), P＜0.05] at admission, APACHEⅡscores [HR(95%CI)=1.789(1.105-2.928), P＜0.05] and the size of traumatic brain injury [HR (95%CI)=6.256 (1.727-10.834), P＜0.05] were the independent influence factors of short-time 6m prognosis of sTBI patients. The area under ROC curve and Youden＇s index of HIF-1α, IL-6 and APACHEⅡscores at admission on prediction of prognosis of sTBI patients were 0.94 (95% CI 0.81-0.99) and 0.85, which was higher than separate predictive value of HIF-1α, IL-6 and APACHEⅡ scores. Conclusion The present study demontrated that serum HIF-1α and IL-6 at admission may be the early sensitive predictors of short-time prognosis in sTBI patients.