Present and Future of Neurologist: Do We Have Enough Neurologists?

ABSTRACT

Korea is one of the fastest aging country in the world. As the old population increases, incidence of stroke would rapidly increase. We estimated future of the neurologist supply in Korea, and assessed whether the present neurologist supply is appropriate to cope with future increase of stroke. We reviewed the resource database of neurologists affiliated to Korean Neurological Association. Age, sex, location of workplace, and work positions were identified. The stroke incidence was calculated from age group specific incidence data and projected age group number. Age group specific incidence data was adapted from the 2006 report of the Construction of National Surveillance System for Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease. Total 1,828 neurologists in practice were identified. Six hundred and fifty-five (30%) worked in training hospitals. 457 (21%) in other general hospitals, 305 (14%) in private clinics, and 148 (7%) worked in nursing hospitals. Assuming that the neurologists are trained 82 people per year as in the present, 2,073 neurologists would be present in 2020, 2,659 in 2030. However, stroke incidence would show more rapid increment, and is expected about 170,000 per year in 2020 and 300,000 per year in 2030. Therefore, there will be a shortage of neurologists needed for stroke care in the future. Because of rapid increase in the elderly population, current supply of neurologists may not meet the expected need for stroke care. Therefore, national health system needs more neurologists to cope with that situation.