The application of X -1 2 -ARIMA model in analysis on incidence trend of typhoid / 预防医学
Journal of Preventive Medicine
;
(12): 761-763,767, 2015.
Artigo
em Chinês
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-792430
ABSTRACT
Objective To study the function of X -1 2 -ARIMA model in analysis on incidence trend of typhoid. Methods Secular trend,seasonal periodicity and random fluctuations of the monthly morbidity data in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 201 3 were analyzed by X -1 2 -ARIMA model.Results The seasonal fluctuation showed a narrowing trend year by year during 2005 to 201 3.After September,2007,the incidence of typhoid showed a downward trend.After 2008,the annual peak of incidence changed from August to July.The irregular factor may well represent the outbreak. Conclusion The X -1 2 -ARIMA model showed clear secular trend and seasonal periodicity,and the random fluctuation was of great value.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo de incidência
/
Estudo prognóstico
Idioma:
Chinês
Revista:
Journal of Preventive Medicine
Ano de publicação:
2015
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
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