Analysis on effectiveness of infectious disease automated alert and response system in Hunan province from 2012 to 2016 / 中华实验和临床病毒学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To analyze the effectiveness and response status of China Infectious Disease Automated Alert and Response System (CIDARS) in Hunan province from 2012 to 2016 for improving the system.@*Methods@#To collect the early warning signals, the number of suspected events, the result of on-site investigation, the signal response time and the result of public health emergencies, and the χ2 test, correlation analysis and non-parametric test were used to analyze the information on CIDARS in Hunan Province during the period from 2012 to 2016.@*Results@#A total of 108 188 signals were generated by the CIDARS in Hunan Province; The warning involved 30 kinds of infectious diseases and 138 counties (districts), and each county (district) received 3.00 weekly warning messages on average; 100% early warning signal was responded, 2 h response rate was 92.43%; The median response time (P25-P75) was 0.28 (0.11-0.77) h in the single case warning, and the five-year timely response rate showed an upward trend year by year (trend χ2=58.89, P<0.05); the median response time (P25-P75) was 0.56 (0.28~1.06) h in the time series warning, and the five-year timely response rate showed no trend (trend χ2=2.43, P>0.05); the time series warning response was more timely than the single case warning, and the difference between the two timely response rates was statistically significant(χ2=5156.60, P<0.05). The studies showed that the sensitivity, specificity, and detection timeliness of the system were 84.80%, 69.53%, and 2.80 d, respectively; There was no significant difference in the infectious diseases detecting timeliness of CIDARS(H=8.75, P>0.05); the system had the best effect in rubella, and the positive likelihood ratio of rubella is 4.36.@*Conclusions@#CIDARS in Hunan province runs well overall with high sensitivity and timely response to the early warning signals, but the specificity of the early warning system needs to be improved. The quality of the epidemic report of infectious diseases needs to be further improved, and the early warning parameters and warning method should be adjusted according to the characteristics of different diseases and the differences among different regions.