Establishment of influenza risk forecasting model by analytical flow chart method / 预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective @#To apply analytical flow chart method to building a model for forecasting the risk of influenza and providing preventive measures.@*Methods @#Surveillance data of influenza in Zhoushan from 2015 to 2018 was collected. Analytical flow chart method was used to evaluate the real-time risk of influenza,which were stratified by the seasonality of influenza,the percentage of influenza-like patients （ILI%） and whether there were effective prevention and treatment measures. The trend-line,warning line and action line of the influenza in 2018 were fit and the risk grades of influenza forecast were defined,which were compared with the actual risk grands during the first 20 weeks in 2018,to evaluate the accuracy of influenza forecast index.@*Results @#Through the analysis of the flow chart,the influenza index was divided into six grades,very high risk（gradeⅠ,n=0）,high risk （gradeⅡ,n=14,ILI%=12.61%±7.54%）,relative high risk （gradeⅢ,n=16,ILI%=7.76%±3.53%）,general risk（gradeⅣ,n=57,ILI%=6.31%±2.26%）,relative low risk （gradeⅤ,n=32,ILI%=5.37%±1.96%）and low risk （grade Ⅵ,n=37,ILI%=4.30%±1.40%）. The concordance rate between the forecast risk and actual risk was 70.00% （14/20）.@*Conclusion @#This influenza forecasting model could well forecast the levels of influenza risk each week.