Prognostic factors analysis and establishment of prediction model for 183 cases of esophageal cancer bone metastasis / 中国实用内科杂志

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To construct a model for predicting the prognosis of esophageal cancer bone metastasis. METHODS: The clinical data of 183 patients with esophageal cancer bone metastasis were analyzed retrospectively, and the prognostic factors of patients were analyzed by log-rank method and Cox proportional hazard model. Nomogram was constructed with the accelerated failure-time model.RESULTS: The average survival time(10.0 months, 95% CI:7.758-12.338) of patients aged 28-70 years was longer than that of patients aged 71-91(6.4 months, 95% CI:4.365-8.428)(χ~2=4.077, P=0.043). The prognosis of unmarried patients(average 7.0 months) was worse than that of the married(10.5 months on average)(χ~2=12.841, P<0.001). As for prognoses of different pathological types, the differences between adenocarcinoma(average 10.2 months, 95% CI:7.797-12.548), squamous cell carcinoma(average 6.4 months,95%CI:3.895-8.899) and other types(average 4.0 months, 95% CI:4.000-4.000) were statistically significant(χ~2=7.171, P=0.028).There were also significant differences between the prognoses of patients with different T stage(χ~2=8.833, P=0.032). Nomogram was constructed with the risk factors above and the C-index reached 0.675(95%CI: 0.626-0.725). CONCLUSION: The prognosis of esophageal cancer bone metastasis was poor. Marriage, T stage, histological grade and pathological types were risk factors affecting prognosis, while N stage didn't appear to show obvious effect on prognosis. The nomogram was tested to have a good predictive capacity.