Prevalence and prediction of pre-hospital medical trauma in Urumqi / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the current situation of pre-hospital trauma emergency medical care of Urumqi in 2011-2018 and predict the situation in the next five years,so as to provide a basis for rational allocation of pre-hospital emergency resources and improvement of health service system.Methods A total of 427 754 pre-hospital emergency patients were collected from January 1,2011 to December 31,2008 in Urumqi.Epidemiological methods were performed for statistical description and analysis.The single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)],multi-factor grey model and moving average model (MA1) was established for predicting the number of pre-hospital trauma patients each year.The single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)] and SARIMA model were used for the seasonal prediction.Results The male-female ratio of pre-hospital trauma patients was 1.981 and the incidence rate of male patients (534.91/100 000) was significantly higher than that of female patients (274.88/100 000) (x2=7 659.707,P＜0.01),and the incidence rate of male patients was 1.95 times higher than that of female patients.The trauma patients aged 35-59 years accounted for the largest proportion (42％),and the incidence of the disease was the highest among those aged ≥ 60 years old (644.23/100 000).The incidence ofpre-hospital trauma increased year by year (from 408.86/100 000 in 2011 to 550.02/100 000 in 2017),with a high incidence in summer (27 123,31.03％),especially in August (9 535,10.91％),most of which occurred in the new urban area (high-tech zone) (23 157,26.50％).The single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)],multi-factor gray model,and moving average model (MA1) predicted that the total number of pre-hospital trauma patients in 2023 was 13 118,11 715 and 13 305,respectively,and the MAE were 451.125 0,607.428 6,and 205.125 0,respectively.The single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)] and SARIMA model predicted the value in the summer of 2023 would be 3 638 and 4 999,respectively,and the MAE were 47.129 0 and 110.370 4,respectively.Conclusions The pre-hospital trauma in Urumqi is mainly male and young work-age adults,the incidence of the elderly is the highest,summer is the season of high incidence,and the new urban area (high-tech zone) is the primary district.The moving average model (MA1) model has a more accurate annual prediction,and the single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)] is the best model for seasonal prediction.The pre-hospital trauma emergency medical care demand will continue to increase in the next five years.The health administrative department should enlarge the allocation of pre-hospital emergency resources and improve the emergency service capabilities and efficiencies.