Spatial epidemiological characteristics and prediction models of bacterial dysentery in Chongqing from 2009 to 2016 based on meteorological elements / 上海交通大学学报（医学版）

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the spatial epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery and its correlation with meteorological elements in Chongqing, and to construct its incidence prediction model, thus providing scientific basis for the prevention and control of bacterial dysentery. Methods: The data of bacterial dysentery cases and meteorological factors from 2009 to 2016 in Chongqing was collected in this study. Descriptive methods were employed to investigate the epidemiological distribution of bacillary dysentery. Spatiotemporal scanning statistics was used to analyze spatiotemporal characteristics of bacillary dysentery. DCCA coefficient method was used to quantify the correlation between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and meteorological elements. Both Boruta algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) combined with support vector machine for regression model (SVR) were used to establish the prediction model for the incidence of bacterial dysentery. Results: ①The mean annual reported incidence of bacillary dysentery in Chongqing from 2009 to 2016 was 29.394/100 000. Children <5 years old had the highest incidence (295.892/100 000) among all age categories and scattered children had the highest proportion (50.335%) among all occupation categories. The seasonal incidence peak was from May to October. Bacterial dysentery showed a significant spatial-temporal aggregation that the most likely clusters for disease was found mainly in the main urban areas and main gathering time was from June to October. ②The most important meteorological elements associated with the incidence of bacterial dysentery were monthly mean atmospheric pressure (ρDCCA=-0.918), monthly mean maximum temperature (ρDCCA=0.875) and monthly mean temperature (ρDCCA=0.870). ③The mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and square correlation coefficient (R2) of PSO_SVR model constructed based on meteorological elements were 0.055, 0.101 and 0.909, respectively. Conclusion: The main urban areas of Chongqing and the northeast of Chongqing should be regarded as the key areas for the prevention and control of bacillary dysentery. At the same time, according to the characteristics of bacillary dysentery, relevant health departments should take targeted measures to control the spread and prevalence of bacillary dysentery among children <5 years old, scattered children and farmers. The PSO_SVR model constructed based on meteorological elements has good predictive performance and can provide scientific theoretical support for the prevention and control of bacterial dysentery.