Incidence and mortality trends of female breast cancer in Changning district of Shanghai, 1973-2013 / 肿瘤

ABSTRACT

Objective: To explore the long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai from 1973 to 2013. Methods: Using the data of female breast cancer which were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the population data which were obtained from the Changning District Bureau of Public Security, the crude rates and the world population-standardized rates of incidence and mortality of female breast cancer were calculated. Joinpoint analysis was conducted to analyze the trend changes and to estimate the annual percent changes of incidence and mortality rates. Furthermore, the age-period-cohort model was performed to further investigate the effects of age, diagnosis period and birth cohort on the secular trends of breast cancer incidence and mortality. Results: From 1973 to 2013, 5 365 female cases were newly diagnosed with breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai, the crude incidence rate was 49.98/100 000; at the same time, 1 589 female cases were dead of breast cancer, the crude mortality rate was 14.80/100 000. For age-standardized rates, the significant increasing trends of incidence and mortality rates of female breast cancer were observed (both P < 0.05). The annual percent changes of agestandardized incidence and mortality rates were 2.69% and 1.39%. Both the diagnosis period and birth cohort had impacts on the incidence trend of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai (both P < 0.01), and the change of mortality trend was almost attributed to the effect of birth cohort (P < 0.01). Conclusion: The incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai from 1973 to 2013 showed an upward trend. So the prevention and treatment of female breast cancer should be strengthened, and the healthy life style should be advocated by the related health department.