Establishment and verification of prognostic risk scoring system for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma / 中国医师进修杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To establish and validate the prognosis risk scoring system based on the prognostic risk factors of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).Methods:The clinical data of 135 patients with ESCC in Rugao Hospital Affiliated to Nantong University from January 2014 to December 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent radical resection of esophageal cancer and were followed up until February 1, 2020. According to prognosis, the patients were divided into survival group (70 cases) and death group (65 cases). Cox proportional hazard model was used to analyze the risk factors of affecting prognosis, and the prognostic risk scoring system was established according to the HR value. The patients were divided into low, medium and high risk of death, and the prognosis of patients with different death risk was compared.Results:The median follow-up time was 41 (3 to 72) months and the median survival time was 51 months. Lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were independent risk factors for the prognosis of ESCC patients ( P < 0.05). The 1-, 3- and 5-year cumulative survival rates of patients with low risk of death were 96.7%, 77.7% and 65.2%, respectively, which were higher than those of patients with moderate risk of death (91.7%, 75.6% and 37.1%) and those of patients with high risk of death (87.9%, 42.2% and 26.8%), and the difference was statistically significant ( χ2 = 18.462, P < 0.01). Conclusions:The prognosis risk scoring system is an effective evaluation system for the prognosis of ESCC patients, which can help clinicians to stratify patients and perform individualized treatment.