Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine
;
: 69-69, 2021.
Artigo
em Inglês
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-888604
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND@#Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate.@*METHODS@#Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics.@*RESULTS@#The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively.@*CONCLUSION@#Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Assunto principal:
Doenças Respiratórias
/
Estações do Ano
/
Tempo
/
Mudança Climática
/
Doenças Cardiovasculares
/
Análise de Regressão
/
Mortalidade
/
Causas de Morte
/
Temperatura Baixa
/
Temperatura Alta
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo diagnóstico
/
Estudo prognóstico
Limite:
Humanos
País/Região como assunto:
Ásia
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
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