Development of Cerebral Amyloid Positivity Predicting Models Using Clinical Indicators

ABSTRACT

Objectives@#Amyloid β positron emission tomography (Aβ PET) is widely used as a diagnostic tool in patients who have symptoms of cognitive impairment, however, this diagnostic examination is too expensive. Thus, predicting the positivity of Aβ PET before patients undergo the examination is essential. We aimed to analyze clinical predictors of patients who underwent Aβ PET retrospectively, and to develop a predicting model of Aβ PET positivity. @*Methods@#468 patients who underwent Aβ PET with cognitive impairment were recruited and their clinical indicators were analyzed retrospectively. We specified the primary outcome as Aβ PET positivity, and included variables such as age, sex, body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, education, dementia family history, Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Box (CDR-SB), hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM) and presence of apolipoprotein E (ApoE) E4 as potential predictors. We developed three final models of amyloid positivity prediction for total subjects, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia using a multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed and the area under curve (AUC) value was calculated for the ROC curve. @*Results@#Aβ PET negative patients were 49.6% (n = 232), and Aβ PET positive patients were 50.4% (n = 236). In the final model of all subjects, older age, female sex, presence of ApoE E4 and lower MMSE are associated with Aβ PET positivity. The AUC value was 0.296.In the final model of MCI subjects (n = 244), older age and presence of ApoE E4 are associated with Aβ PET positivity. The AUC value was 0.725. In the final model of AD subjects (n = 173), lower MMSE scores, the presence of ApoE E4 and history of HTN are associated with Aβ PET positivity. The AUC value was 0.681. @*Conclusions@#The cerebral amyloid positivity model, which was based on commonly available clinical indicators, can be useful for prediction of amyloid PET positivity in MCI or AD patients.Using Clinical Indicators