The value of acute gastrointestinal injury grading combined with qSOFA score in the diagnosis of sepsis / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To develop a prediction model of acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) grading combined with qSOFA score for the diagnosis of sepsis, and evaluate its value.Methods:This was a prospective observational study. The patients with infection or suspected infection in the General Ward of Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University from September 2018 to September 2019 were included. Patients younger than 18 years, pregnant, abandoned treatment and died within 3 days after admission were excluded. Clinical characteristics, laboratory test results and AGI grading from 48 h before the infection to 24 h after the onset of infection were recorded. The patients were divided into the sepsis and non-sepsis groups according to whether they were diagnosed with sepsis. The patients were allocated randomly to a modeling cohort and a validation cohort with a ratio of 73. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the relevant risk factors for sepsis in the modeling cohort. Three types of diagnostic models were constructed in the modeling cohort model A (qSOFA model), model B (the combined model of AGI grading and qSOFA score), and model C (the combined model of clinical parameters). The clinical usefulness of the diagnostic models was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) in the validation cohort. The nomograms were developed based on these models.Results:A total of 2 553 patients were enrolled in the study, 1 789 patients in the modeling cohort and 764 patients in the validation cohort. and 326 were diagnosed with sepsis. There was no statistical difference in the basic conditions of patients in the two groups. Univariate analysis showed that age, gender, the source of infection, temperature, heart rate, polypnea, changes in consciousness, severe edema, hyperglycemia, white blood cell, C-reactive protein and procalcitonin, hypotension, hypoxemia, acute oliguria, coagulation disorders, hyperlacticemia, capillary filling damage or piebaldskin, AGI grading and qSOFA score were significantly correlated with sepsis (all P<0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ( OR=1.027, P<0.01), source of infection ( OR=2.809, P=0.03), hypotension ( OR=35.449, P<0.01), hypoxemia ( OR=57.018, P<0.01), and AGI grading ( OR=19.313, P<0.01) were significantly associated with sepsis. ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of model A, B and C were 0.784, 0.944 and 0.971 in the modeling cohort, and 0.832, 0.975 and 0.980 in the validation cohort, respectively. The sensitivities were 63.9%, 89.5% and 97.5% in the modeling cohort, and 72.7%, 90.9% and 96.6% in the validation cohort; and the specificities were 90.8%, 90.3% and 88.1% in the modeling cohort, and 92.2%, 94.5% and 92.8% in the validation cohort, respectively. AUC of model B and C were significantly higher than that of model A ( P<0.01). Model A in the validation cohort was poorly calibrated, with low accuracy and high risk of missed sepsis diagnosis ( P=0.044). The net benefits of model B and C were better than that of model A. Conclusions:AGI grading combined with qSOFA score has a high predictive value and accuracy in the diagnosis of sepsis.