Current Status and Future Forecast of the Number of Otolaryngologists in Korea / 대한이비인후과학회지

ABSTRACT

Background and Objectives@#The number of otolaryngologists in Korea has increased rapidly in recent years. However, as the population is expected to decrease gradually, it is necessary to study the appropriate number of otolaryngologists. @*Subjects and Methods@#We counted the number of otolaryngologists certified annually and the number of currently active otolaryngologists, and estimated the retirement time from this data. In addition, the statistics from the National Statistical Office were used to survey the total population and the youth population under the age of 14 up to 2060. Finally, changes in the number of active otolaryngologists and the population per otolaryngologist were predicted by 2060. @*Results@#The total number of otolaryngologists certified by 2020 was 4699, and the number of active otolaryngologists in 2019 was 3950. The average duration of retirement is about 36.5 years, and it is expected to be 40 years soon. Currently, 77.4% of otolaryngologists are practitioners, and 51.3% are working in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. In 2009, the number of people per otolaryngologist was about 17000, whereas in 2019 it was sharply reduced to about 13000. If 120 otolaryngologists are produced each year, it decreases to about 10000 by 2060. However, if the number of new otolaryngologists is reduced to 100 per year, it can be maintained at around 12000 in 2060. In any case, however, the number of patients under 14 years of age cannot be prevented from falling sharply. @*Conclusion@#It is necessary to adjust the number of otolaryngologists to account for population decline.