Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. Method The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R 0 . Result Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R 0 was 3.49 (95% CI : 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R 0 was estimated to be 2.95 (95% CI : 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. Conclusion In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R 0 using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.