Characteristic manifestations of ΔCT in hepatitis B cirrhosis with upper gastrointestinal bleeding and establishment of a predictive model / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the CT characteristics of hepatitis B cirrhosis, and to predict the risk of bleeding by establishing a predictive model for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in liver cirrhosis. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 101 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis who were admitted to Tianjin First Central Hospital from January 2015 to June 2021, and these patients were divided into upper gastrointestinal bleeding group and non- bleeding group. The two groups were compared in terms of laboratory findings and CT values in plain scan, arterial phase, portal vein phase, and venous phase measured by contrast-enhanced CT, and the changes in CT values (ΔCT) across different phases were calculated. The t -test or the Mann-Whitney U rank sum test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to predict the related risk factors; The discrimination of the model was evaluated by calculating the area under the working characteristic curve of the subjects, and the model calibration criteria were determined by Hosmer-lemeshow. Based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, Rstudio4.1.2 R package was used to establish a predictive model, and draws the corresponding ROC curve, calibration curve and clinical decision curve. Results There were significant differences in serum TBil, WBC and PLT levels between the non-bleeding group and the bleeding group (all P < 0.05). There were significant differences in liver-plain, spleen-P-plain and spleen-P-A ΔCT(all P < 0.05). The univariate logistic analysis showed that there were significant differences in leukocytes (odds ratio [ OR ]=0.770, 95% confidence interval [ CI ] 0.624-0.952, P =0.016), platelets ( OR =0.979, 95% CI 0.965-0.994, P =0.006), liver plain scan ( OR =1.142, 95% CI 1.058-1.233, P =0.001), ΔCT value of the spleen from portal vein phase to plain scan ( OR =0.979, 95% CI 0.959-1.000, P =0.050), and ΔCT value of the spleen from portal vein phase to arterial phase ( OR =0.979, 95% CI 0.944-0.994, P =0.015) between the hepatitis B cirrhosis patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding and those without bleeding. The multivariate logistic analysis showed that platelets ( OR =0.968, 95% CI 0.944-0.993, P =0.011), liver plain phase ( OR =1.148, 95% CI 1.047-1.259, P =0.003), and ΔCT value of the spleen from portal vein phase to arterial phase ( OR =0.951, 95% CI 0.908-0.995, P =0.030) were independent risk factors for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. A predictive model for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in hepatitis B cirrhosis was established based on the results of the multivariate logistic analysis, and a calibration curve was plotted. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.801 at the cut-off value of 0.433, with a sensitivity of 81.4% and a specificity of 77.6%. The calibration curve of the model fitted well with the ideal curve. Conclusion There are special ΔCT changes in hepatitis B cirrhosis, and the predictive model based on ΔCT has a good predictive ability for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis.