Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for the Number of Patients Visiting Emergency Departments
Journal of the Korean Society of Emergency Medicine
;
: 678-686, 2010.
Artigo
em Coreano
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-93392
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for the number of patients visiting emergency departments.METHODS:
Enrolled patients were from eleven regional emergency departments (EDs) (level-1) that inputted information on emergency patients into the National Emergency Department Information System since 2004. We developed the automated regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-based prediction model using a dataset covering 2005 to 2007. To validate the prediction model, we performed Bland-Altman plot analysis for a new dataset, that of 2008, calculating the agreement rate.RESULTS:
The total number of enrolled patients was 1,532,294. Of these, 844,802 (55.1%) were male and mean age was 36.5. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1) 7 was selected as the best-fit prediction model. When we tested the validity using Bland-Altman plots, the agreement rate was 96.4% (95% CI, 94.0%~98.1%). Non-agreement dates were national holidays (n=9), and the other weekdays (n=4), respectively.CONCLUSION:
We developed the ARIMA-based prediction model for emergency patients at regional EDs. The model showed a very high validity.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Assunto principal:
Sistemas de Informação
/
Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Cronologia como Assunto
/
Moclobemida
/
Emergências
/
Serviços Médicos de Emergência
/
Férias e Feriados
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo prognóstico
/
Fatores de risco
Limite:
Humanos
/
Masculino
Idioma:
Coreano
Revista:
Journal of the Korean Society of Emergency Medicine
Ano de publicação:
2010
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
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