The clinical value of the New England spinal metastases score system in predicting the survival of patients with spinal metastases / 中华骨科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To evaluate the clinical value of the New England spinal metastasis score (NESMS) in predicting the prognosis of patients with spinal metastases by retrospectively analyzing the medical records of multicenter spinal metastases in China.Methods:The data of 179 patients with spinal metastases from January 2008 to December 2018 were retrospectively collected. There were 108 males (60.3%) and 71 females (39.7%) with an average age of 59.79±10.88 years old (range 27-84 years). The patient demographic characteristics, primary tumor type, spinal metastases and segments, vertebral pathological fractures, neurological Frankel classification, physical function status, Karnofsky performance scale (KPS), visual analogue score (VAS), the spinal instability neoplastic score (SINS), modified Bauer score, NESMS score, Tomita score and modified Tokuhashi score were collected. The clinical value of NESMS score, Tomita score and modified Tokuhashi score in predicting the survival of patients with spinal metastases were compared. The independent factors affecting survival in these patients were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression model.Results:Among the 179 patients, the peak incidence of spinal metastases was in the age group of 61-75 years (45.3%, 81/179) of all patients. Lung cancer was the most common primary tumor (46.9%, 84/179). 40.8% (73/179) of patients had multi-segment metastasisand thoracic spine was the most common site with single-site metastasis (26.3%, 47/179). 28.5% (51/179) of the patients had visceral metastases and 52.0% (93/179) of the patients had extraspinal bone metastases. 31.3% (56/179) of the patients had pathological fractures of the involved vertebral bodies.114 patients received surgical treatment (63.4%). The mortality rates in 3-months, 6-months and 1-year were 22.4% (40/179), 51.4% (92/179) and 77.1% (138/179), respectively. The median survival time of patients with NESMS score of 0-3 was 3, 4, 8, and 10 months respectively with the mean survival time was 3.60±2.10, 6.77±3.39, 9.69±5.71 and 10.53±6.25 months. The 1-year mortality rates were 100% (13/13), 87.5% (42/48), 71.6% (63/88) and 66.7% (20/30) respectively. The consistency of NESMS score, Tomita score and modified Tokuhashi score in predicting survival of all patients was 0.63, 0.58 and 0.55, respectively. For patients with spinal metastases, the NESMS score was better than the Tomita score and modified Tokuhashi score in predicting survival at 3-months (AUC=1.00, 0.63, 0.42) and 6-months (AUC=0.71, 0.63, 0.45). But the accuracy of Tomita score was best in predicting survival at 1-year (AUC=0.66, 0.61, 0.38). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that growth rate of primary tumor, neurological function Frankel score, albumin level and surgical treatment were independent factors affecting the survival time of patients with spinal metastases ( P<0.05). Conclusion:The consistency and accuracy of NESMS score in predicting survival of patients with spinal metastases are better than Tomita score and modified Tokuhashi score, especially in predicting 3- and 6-month survival. The growth rate of primary tumor, Frankel classification, albumin level and surgical treatment were independent factors affecting the survival time of patients with spinal metastases.