Moderation effect of antecedent rainfall conditions on incidence of bacillary dysentery following heavy rainfall in Anhui Province / 环境与职业医学

ABSTRACT

Background Climate change leads to frequent heavy rainfall events, and higher incidences of bacillary dysentery after heavy rainfall have been observed. The impacts of heavy rainfall and its antecedent rainfall conditions on the disease are worth paying attention to. Objective To quantitatively analyze how the relationship between heavy rainfall events and bacillary dysentery occurrence is modified by antecedent rainfall conditions in Anhui Province and explore the different moderation effects in urban and rural contexts. Methods CN05.1 meteorological data of Anhui Province and cases of bacillary dysentery of the same area were collected from January 1, 2006 to August 31, 2017. An exposure-response Poisson regression model of heavy rainfall events and the number of daily cases was constructed to explore the moderation effect of antecedent rainfall conditions on the incidence of bacillary dysentery, and further stratified by urban and rural areas. Results This study included 129 459 cases of bacillary dysentery, with a daily average of 30.39. Compared with dry antecedent conditions without heavy rainfall, dry antecedent conditions with heavy rainfall had no obvious different effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery for the whole province (P>0.05). But wet antecedent conditions significantly increased the risk of bacillary dysentery for the whole province after heavy rainfall (wet antecedent conditions without heavy rainfall RR=1.281, 95%CI 1.264-1.298; wet antecedent conditions with heavy rainfall RR=1.267, 95%CI 1.167-1.376). After urban and rural stratification, antecedent rainfall conditions also showed a significant moderation effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery following heavy rainfall events. Compared with dry antecedent conditions without heavy rainfall, dry antecedent conditions with heavy rainfall had no obvious effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery for the urban and the rural populations (P > 0.05). However, wet antecedent conditions without heavy rainfall (urban RR=1.391, 95%CI 1.362-1.421; rural RR=1.222, 95%CI 1.201-1.243) and wet antecedent conditions with heavy rainfall (urban RR=1.364, 95%CI 1.193-1.559; rural RR=1.218, 95%CI 1.098-1.352) significantly increased the risk of bacillary dysentery in both rural and urban areas. Conclusion In the influence of heavy rainfall on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Anhui Province, antecedent rainfall conditions have a certain moderation effect in the whole province and in both urban and rural areas, and the risk of bacillary dysentery is increased under wet antecedent conditions.