Cost-utility analysis of sintilimab combined with chemotherapy in first-line treatment of advanced，recurrent or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma / 中国药房

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sintilimab combined with chemotherapy than single-use chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of advanced， recurrent or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma （ESCC） from the perspective of health system of our country， and provide reference for rational use of drug in clinic. METHODS Based on ORIENT-15 study data， TreeAge Pro 2011 software was used to establish a three-state Markov model of non-progressive survival （PFS）， disease progression and death for cost-utility analysis. The model period was 3 weeks， the research time limit was 10 years， and the discount rate was 5%. The main outputs of the model were total cost， quality-adjusted life year （QALY） and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER）. The 1-3 times of China’s GDP per capita in 2021 was taken as the threshold of willing- ness to pay （WTP）. The uncertainty of the parameters was analyzed by single factor sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis， and the cost-effectiveness of the two schemes was discussed under three situations： different discount rates， comparison with other similar treatment schemes and charitable drug donation schemes. RESULTS The results of basic analysis showed that compared with chemotherapy plan alone， the ICER of sintilimab combined with chemotherapy was 64 208.75 yuan/QALY， which was less than WTP threshold. The results of single factor sensitivity analysis show that PFS state utility value， cycle cost of sintilimab and discount rate had relatively great influence on the results. Probability sensitivity analysis showed that when WTP≥120 000 yuan， the economic probability of sintilimab combined with chemotherapy plan was 100%. The results of situational analysis showed that sintilimab combined chemotherapy was more cost- effective than single-use chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS Sintilimab combined with chemotherapy is more cost-effective than single-use chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of advanced， recurrent or metastatic ESCC.